FREE PICKS WED 7/29/26

Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+110)

The oddsmakers are pricing this off public home-field bias, but the underlying numbers point directly to an edge on Arizona. Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for the D-backs touting a rock-solid 2.64 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 122+ innings. He’s consistently pitching deep into games—hitting at least six innings in 13 of his starts—which keeps a heavy workload off the bullpen. Opposite him, the Pirates send out Jared Jones. While Jones boasts a high strikeout rate, his pitch efficiency is suspect, averaging under 5.0 innings per start. Arizona's lineup ranks top-five in the majors against right-handed pitching in wRC+ and hard-hit percentage over the last three weeks, meaning they'll elevate Jones' pitch count early and force Pittsburgh into a middle-relief unit that ranks in the bottom third in xFIP. Taking a sub-3.00 ERA starter with the better offense at plus-money is pure, unadulterated positive EV.

Chicago Cubs ML (-115)

Laying short chalk on the road with Chicago in a divisional matchup is where the sharp money lives. The Cubs enter Busch Stadium backed by a plate approach that is tearing up divisional pitching, holding a top-tier team OBP and elite contact metrics inside the zone. St. Louis continues to struggle with late-inning run prevention, plagued by high leverage splits where their bullpen's walk rate spikes over 10%. The Cubs hold a clear edge in split metrics—hitting higher exit velocities against both righties and lefties while striking out at a far lower clip than the Cardinals in high-leverage spots. With St. Louis burning through their top leverage arms over their last series and Chicago out-classing them in situational hitting, -115 is a discount price on the far more complete baseball team.