FREE PICKS THU 8/13/26

Cleveland Guardians ML (-117) @ Detroit Tigers

Laying -117 on Cleveland in Detroit is the smartest move on today’s afternoon MLB board. This is a rubber match at Comerica Park after Cleveland took down the Tigers 6-4 yesterday, and the Guardians have completely owned this divisional series, holding a 7-1 record against Detroit this season. Cleveland sends left-hander Parker Messick to the bump, and his numbers are outright ridiculous: a 9-6 record with a filthy 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 136 strikeouts over his operational slate. Messick’s ability to generate high swing-and-miss rates while keeping base traffic clean gives Cleveland an immense starting advantage over Detroit’s Keider Montero (3.38 ERA, 86 K's).

The Tigers are staggering into this finale severely depleted, with core middle-of-the-order bats like Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Matt Vierling all sitting on the injured list. That leaves Detroit relying heavily on lower-tier replacement depth that struggles against southpaws who command the strike zone. On the other side, Cleveland’s bats—led by Steven Kwan, who is riding a red-hot .425 clip (17-for-40) over his last 10 games—are making consistent zone contact and forcing high pitch counts early. With Messick suppressing hard contact on the hill and a rest-advantaged Guardians bullpen ready to slam the door late, laying short chalk on the superior squad is as real as it gets.

NFL Preseason: Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Hanging a 43.5-point total on a Week 1 preseason game at Allegiant Stadium is a gift. Oddsmakers are pricing this line like regular-season offensive starters are playing four quarters, but reality dictates a completely different game script. Starters on both sides will see a single drive at most before giving way to second- and third-string QB rotations operating ultra-vanilla playbooks. When you get backup offensive lines working through timing issues and pre-snap penalties against aggressive second-team defensive fronts trying to make final roster cuts, drive stalls and punt formations become the norm.

Neither staff is going to open up the playbook or risk injury in an exhibition opener. Expect heavy doses of between-the-tackles runs on first and second down, keeping the game clock continuously running and chewing up vast chunks of time in the middle quarters. Extended drives that do manage to cross midfield routinely stall out inside the red zone, settling for field goals rather than six points. When backup offenses struggle with basic third-down execution, pushing a total past 43 points requires big-play volatility that simply doesn't exist in early August football.

Both of these spots offer genuine, metric-backed market edges where we hit the books where they are vulnerable. Cleveland brings a 2.57 ERA ace and a 7-1 head-to-head record to cash the ticket in Detroit, while the Cardinals and Raiders will struggle to navigate vanilla schemes past a inflated 43.5 total in Vegas. Trust the hard numbers, lock in the Guardians on the diamond, grab the Under on the gridiron, and let’s secure another winning day.