FREE PICKS THU 7/23/26

Game 1: Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML

Line: -125

Reasoning: Cleveland returns home with Gavin Williams taking the mound against Taj Bradley. The Guardians continue to show superior discipline at Progressive Field, backed by one of the premier high-leverage bullpens in baseball. Facing a divisional opponent in a quick afternoon turnaround, Cleveland's relief depth provides a distinct late-inning advantage to close out a close game.

From a match-up perspective, Williams brings heavy punchout ability into this start, having piled up double-digit strikeouts in consecutive outings. Minnesota’s lineup can be prone to swinging strikes against high-velocity, high-spin righties, giving Cleveland an edge in early-count leverage. If Williams can deliver 5 to 6 solid innings and hand the ball to Cleveland’s high-leverage bullpen, the Guardians will be in total control down the stretch.

Game 2: Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks ML

Line: +115

Reasoning: Arizona travels into Busch Stadium offering rare underdog value in a game that projects as a true coin flip. The Diamondbacks' offense has proven exceptionally potent against standard right-handed starters away from home, putting consistent pressure on opposing starters early. With solid value at plus money, backing the livelier road lineup is the sharp side.

Furthermore, Arizona’s aggressive approach on the basepaths poses a unique threat to St. Louis’ pitch-tempo and holding runners. The Diamondbacks excel at creating extra-base opportunities off misplays and dynamic running, which regularly puts pressure on opposing pitching staffs. Getting a high-ceiling road team at plus money in what is essentially a toss-up environment creates strong value.