FREE PICKS SUN 8/16/26

Atlanta Braves ML (-120) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Laying -120 on Atlanta at Truist Park is the play to close out this series. The Braves hit the diamond following a hard-fought weekend, looking to lean on their offense, which is averaging nearly 5 runs per game at home and hammering right-handed pitching to the tune of a .440 team slugging percentage. Atlanta hands the ball to Bryce Elder (8-7, 4.03 ERA), who brings strong run-suppression metrics at home and eats quality innings to protect the back end of the bullpen. He matches up against Arizona’s Mike Soroka (8-3, 2.92 ERA), who despite solid overall numbers, has posted a bloated 1.32 WHIP on the road and consistently relies on high chase rates outside the zone. Atlanta's patient lineup works deep counts, forces high pitch counts early, and routinely exposes visiting middle relief. Backing the Braves on home turf with a clear late-inning bullpen advantage is the right side to cash.

Boston Red Sox ML (-110) @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Grabbing the Red Sox at -110 as they look to wrap up the series finale at PNC Park offers tremendous value. Boston comes into Sunday riding high off a dominant 4-0 shutout win over Pittsburgh yesterday, backed by an elite pitching unit that ranks among the top three in the majors with a 3.48 team ERA. Left-hander Patrick Sandoval (1-1, 3.30 ERA) takes the hill for Boston, bringing filthy swing-and-miss stuff and holding opposing hitters to a sub-.215 batting average over his last three starts. Pittsburgh counters with Paul Skenes (9-1, 3.88 ERA), but the Pirates' offense has hit a wall, scoring two runs or fewer in four of their last six games and striking out at a elevated 26% clip against southpaws. Boston's lineup is generating high exit velocities, drawing free passes, and executing in late-inning high-leverage spots. Laying the short pick'em price on the hotter, far more complete Red Sox roster is as real as it gets.