FREE PICKS MON 7/27/26

Washington Nationals ML (-110)

Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals

Probable Starters: Max Scherzer (1-4, 10.23 ERA) vs. Andrew Alvarez (2-3, 4.22 ERA)

The key to backing Washington at near pick 'em odds is taking advantage of former Nats ace Max Scherzer’s severe struggles on the mound. Scherzer enters today holding a bloated 10.23 ERA and an 8.79 FIP, repeatedly getting hit hard and giving up home runs while failing to generate swings and misses. Washington's young, aggressive lineup—featuring power bats like James Wood and CJ Abrams—is equipped to exploit Scherzer's vulnerable fastball early in counts.

On the other side, left-hander Andrew Alvarez gives Washington a significant edge in pitching efficiency. While Alvarez's 4.22 ERA looks modest on the surface, his 3.05 FIP and high 52.7% ground-ball rate demonstrate that he excels at mitigating hard contact and avoiding big innings. Taking Washington at home against a struggling starter who isn't missing bats makes the Nats the strong play here.

Houston Astros ML (-104)

Matchup: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels

Probable Starters: Tatsuya Imai (6-4, 5.62 ERA) vs. Walbert Urena (6-7, 2.77 ERA)

The Houston Astros at near EVEN odds (-104) presents a discount on roster depth and offensive ceiling. While Angels righty Walbert Urena has put up solid surface numbers, the Astros' middle of the order—anchored by Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Isaac Paredes—possesses one of the highest hard-hit rates in MLB against right-handed pitching profiles. Houston's lineup consistently works long at-bats and forces opposing starters into deep pitch counts early.

Even with Tatsuya Imai on the bump for Houston, the Astros hold a massive advantage in the late frames. Houston’s high-leverage bullpen unit—backed by Bryan Abreu and closer Josh Hader—gives them a distinct advantage if this game stays close past the 6th inning. Backing the far more complete roster at short odds against a divisional opponent is the play.