FREE PICKS FRI 8/7/2026
MLB: Tampa Bay Rays ML (+102) @ Seattle Mariners
The market is handing us underdog value on Tampa Bay as they head into T-Mobile Park to open a road series against Seattle, and grabbing plus-money on the hotter team is where the sharp money lives. The Rays come into Pacific Northwest territory riding serious offensive momentum after completing a dominant three-game road sweep of the Colorado Rockies earlier this week (winning 13-9, 9-7, and capping it with a 4-0 shutout). Over that three-game stretch, Tampa Bay’s lineup generated 26 total runs while striking out at a low rate, consistently forcing opposing starters into high-stress 20+ pitch frames early. Tampa Bay’s zone-contact percentage and situational wRC+ on the road over the last two weeks rank near the top of the American League.
Seattle's home-field advantage at T-Mobile Park is built on run prevention, but their offensive split discrepancies against right-handed pitching continue to flash severe warning lights. The Mariners enter this series struggling with plate discipline, holding an elevated chase rate and a team strikeout percentage hovering around the bottom tier of the majors. While Seattle relies heavily on starting depth to mask middle-relief weaknesses, Tampa Bay’s bullpen is fully rested and locked in, backed by late-inning swing-and-miss depth that suppresses barrel percentage in high-leverage situations. Taking a Tampa Bay squad coming off a 3-game sweep at +102 plus-money against a low-scoring Seattle offense is pure positive EV.
CFL: Saskatchewan Roughriders -7 (-115) vs. Ottawa Redblacks
Laying a touchdown with Saskatchewan at Mosaic Stadium in this Week 10 CFL matchup offers incredible structural value. The Roughriders enter tonight backed by serious momentum after pulling out a gritty 28-26 road victory over the Edmonton Elks in Week 9, continuing to show why their balanced offensive attack and defensive line pressure make them a top contender in the West. Saskatchewan’s offense is firing on all cylinders, averaging over 300 passing yards per game behind high-efficiency intermediate passing that systematically carves up soft defensive coverages. At home in Regina, the Roughriders' physical run game converts second-and-short opportunities at an elite rate, keeping drive momentum alive and controlling time of possession.
Ottawa hits the road in a nightmarish situational game script. The Redblacks continue to bleed defensive efficiency, surrendering high-percentage completion rates to opposing slot receivers and ranking near the bottom of the league in third-down stop percentage and red-zone touchdown prevention. Ottawa’s offensive line has struggled with pass protection on obvious passing downs, leading to high sack rates and turnover volatility when forced to play from behind. Facing Saskatchewan’s ferocious front seven in front of a raucous Mosaic Stadium crowd will force Ottawa into early mistakes and rapid three-and-outs. Saskatchewan holds clear operational edges in starting QB play, turnover margin, and home field—expect the Roughriders to pull away in the second half and cover the -7 (-115) spread with room to spare.