FREE PICKS FRI 8/14/26

Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders UNDER 36.5 (-110)

Locking in the Under on 36.5 at Northwest Stadium is the sharpest look on tonight's Friday night exhibition slate. Both Mike McDaniel and Dan Quinn are pulling their high-end starter units early—or holding them out entirely—meaning this matchup quickly turns into a heavy dosage of third-string offensive lines trying to handle aggressive rotational pass rushers. Washington's offense under backup QB rotations routinely gets plagued by vanilla play-calling and pre-snap penalties, which bogs down drive tempo and keeps the clock moving between the tackles. Expect extended second-half drives that completely stall inside the red zone, settling for field goals instead of six points. When two backup units are working through early August timing issues, 37 total points is a mountain to climb.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets UNDER 35.5 (-110)

MetLife Stadium hosts a nationally televised clash where the defensive depth charts hold a massive, structural advantage over backup quarterback play. New York’s secondary and second-unit front seven are notoriously physical in August, dialing up pressure looks that force unrefined backup signal-callers into quick check-downs, high sack rates, and non-competitive throws out of the pocket. Tampa Bay’s travel script doesn't help either; they’ll rely heavily on running the ball on first and second down to keep their rotational depth healthy, draining massive chunks of time off the game clock. With both coaching staffs prioritizing procedural execution and zero-risk playbooks, this one projects as a classic 16-13 slugfest.

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons UNDER 41.5 (-110)

Hanging a total above 41 points on a Week 1 preseason game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a massive gift from the books. Denver head coach Sean Payton already confirmed that starting quarterback Bo Nix isn't even touching the field tonight, handing the keys over to reserve quarterbacks Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger for a half each. While Atlanta will trot out starters for a brief early stint, the bulk of this contest will feature second- and third-stringers running base, vanilla offenses against defensive depth players fighting for final roster spots. Neither side has the quick-strike, big-play volatility past the first quarter to support a total this high. Expect long, run-heavy possessions, frequent punts, and a total that falls comfortably short of 41 points.