FREE PICKS FRI 7/31/26

Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-124) @ Cincinnati Reds

The market is underpricing Pittsburgh in this divisional trip to Great American Ball Park. The Reds' pitching staff continues to bleed hard contact inside their home launcher, surrendering bloated exit velocities and high barrel percentages. Pittsburgh’s lineup holds a clear situational edge against Cincinnati’s starting right-handers and an overworked Reds bullpen that ranks in the bottom tier in late-inning walk rate (BB%) and high-leverage xFIP. With the Pirates holding the distinct advantage in both starting depth and run prevention late, -124 is a discounted price on the superior side.

Chicago Cubs ML (-144) vs. New York Yankees

Taking the Cubs at home as a favorite against New York comes down to plate discipline and pitching split discrepancies at Wrigley Field. The Yankees' pitching staff struggles with zone-contact-heavy teams, and Chicago’s order ranks near the top of the league in forcing high pitch counts early and capitalizing on middle-relief traffic. Meanwhile, New York’s lineup has seen a spike in chase rate against right-handed breaking stuff on the road. The Cubs hold clear edges in starting quality, bullpen leverage, and situational OBP. Laying -144 on Chicago at home is pure, positive EV.

Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-113) vs. Boston Red Sox

Getting Los Angeles at near-pick'em odds at Dodger Stadium against Boston is a gift from the oddsmakers over-adjusting for the Red Sox's recent road streak. Boston’s rotation faces a brutal matchup against an LA lineup that crushes right-handed pitching—ranking top-three in wRC+, team OBP, and slugging percentage. While Boston brings aggressive bats, the Dodgers' pitching staff boasts elite swing-and-miss metrics that directly counter the Red Sox's high chase rates in high-leverage spots. At -113, the house is giving us a discount on a championship roster on home turf.