Game Overview
Date: August 24, 2024
Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Week: 0 of the 2024 College Football Season
Kickoff Time: 4:00 PM ET
Spread: Montana State -13.5
Moneyline: Montana State -550, New Mexico +400
Total: 54.5
Weather: Clear skies, temperatures around 80°F, light winds at 5-10 mph
TV Channel: ESPN+
Team Analysis
Away Team: Montana State Bobcats
Offense: Montana State's offense is expected to be one of the most formidable in the FCS this season. Last year, they averaged 36.5 points per game, led by their ground game which amassed over 250 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Tommy Mellott is the heart of this offense, known for his dual-threat ability, having passed for over 2,200 yards and 18 touchdowns while rushing for an additional 800 yards and 10 touchdowns. Running back Scottre Humphrey adds to the ground attack, with 900 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns last season. Wide receiver Clevan Thomas Jr. will be a key target in the passing game, providing a reliable option downfield.
Highlight: Tommy Mellott is the key player to watch, with his ability to impact the game both through the air and on the ground making him a nightmare for opposing defenses. His leadership and playmaking ability will be critical for Montana State’s success.
Defense: Defensively, Montana State was solid last season, allowing just 21.3 points per game, which ranked them among the top defenses in the FCS. They were particularly strong against the run, holding opponents to an average of 3.7 yards per carry. Their defensive front is experienced and should be able to apply pressure on New Mexico’s quarterback, while the secondary, which allowed just 200 passing yards per game, will look to contain New Mexico’s receivers.
Away Team Trends:
Montana State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
The Bobcats have hit the over in 6 of their last 8 games.
Montana State is 4-1 straight up in their last five road games.
The Bobcats have scored 30 or more points in 7 of their last 10 games.
Montana State’s defense has held opponents to under 20 points in 4 of their last 6 games.
Home Team: New Mexico Lobos
Offense: New Mexico’s offense struggled last season, averaging just 18.5 points per game, placing them near the bottom of the Mountain West Conference. Quarterback Devon Dampier will be leading the offense this season, and his dual-threat ability is something the Lobos hope to capitalize on. Dampier is relatively untested but shows promise with his mobility and passing skills. Running back Eli Sanders will be the focal point of the ground attack, expected to build on his potential after a strong offseason. Wide receiver Shawn Miller is expected to be the top target in the passing game, providing a deep threat with his speed and ability to stretch the field.
Highlight: Devon Dampier is the player to watch, with his ability to make plays both in the air and on the ground. His performance will be crucial in keeping the Lobos' offense on schedule and creating opportunities to score.
Defense: Defensively, New Mexico allowed an average of 28.7 points per game last season, ranking in the lower half of the Mountain West. The Lobos struggled particularly against the run, allowing opponents to average 4.8 yards per carry. Improvement in this area will be key if they hope to slow down Montana State's potent rushing attack. The secondary, which gave up 240 passing yards per game, will also need to step up to prevent big plays through the air.
Home Team Trends:
New Mexico is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games.
The Lobos have hit the under in 7 of their last 10 games.
New Mexico is 2-8 straight up in their last 10 games at home.
The Lobos have allowed 30 or more points in 6 of their last 8 games.
New Mexico has struggled offensively, scoring under 20 points in 5 of their last 7 games.
Key Matchups to Watch
Tommy Mellott vs. New Mexico’s Defense: Mellott’s ability to exploit New Mexico’s struggling defense will be a critical factor. His dual-threat capability could lead to big plays both through the air and on the ground, putting pressure on New Mexico to contain him.
Devon Dampier vs. Montana State’s Defense: Dampier will need to be at his best against a tough Montana State defense that excels at stopping the run. His ability to extend plays with his legs and connect with Shawn Miller could determine how successful New Mexico's offense is.
Special Teams Battle: Field position could play a crucial role in this game, especially if New Mexico struggles to move the ball consistently. Both teams will need to execute well on special teams to control the game’s momentum.
Betting Insights
Spread Betting: Montana State is favored by 13.5 points. With their potent offense and solid defense, the Bobcats are well-positioned to cover the spread. New Mexico will need to significantly improve on both sides of the ball to stay within the margin.
Over/Under: The total for the game is set at 54.5 points. Given Montana State’s explosive offense, the over could be a strong play, especially if New Mexico can contribute to the scoring. However, the under might be safer if New Mexico’s offense struggles to keep up.
Moneyline: Montana State is a heavy favorite at -550. Betting on New Mexico at +400 offers a high-risk, high-reward scenario, but it would require a standout performance from the Lobos to pull off the upset.
Expert Opinions
Experts generally favor Montana State to cover the spread, citing their balanced offense and strong defense as key factors. The Bobcats' ability to control the game with their rushing attack and stifling defense gives them a clear advantage. New Mexico will need to improve dramatically on offense to challenge Montana State, making the spread a challenging hurdle for the Lobos to overcome.
Final Thoughts
The Montana State vs. New Mexico game offers an intriguing matchup to kick off the 2024 college football season. Montana State’s balanced offense and strong defense give them a significant edge, but New Mexico’s potential for improvement under Devon Dampier could keep the game closer than expected. Bettors should consider Montana State to cover the spread, with the total points likely hovering around the over/under mark, depending on New Mexico's offensive output.
This game presents a solid opportunity for strategic betting, with Montana State as the clear favorite to control the tempo and outcome.
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